| The Balkans |
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As of the early 21st Century, the Balkans is undoubtedly the most active laboratory for the testing of US weapons, doctrines, and tactics. What weand our potential enemieslearn from this experience will help determine the effectiveness of our forces for years to come.
The official DoD report: Kosovo/Operation Allied Force After-Action Report - (12/31/1999) - (2.2MB PDF) Also available, and with a brief overview, from the Federation of American Scientists.
Background note on the situation in Croatia, Report to the European Parliament, March 1, 2000. Overview of events in Croatia since the death of Tudjman and the current situation there from the perspective of the European Union.
"Dubious Anniversary - Kosovo One Year Later." Christopher Layne and Benjamin Schwarz, The Cato Institute, June 2000. The authors make a case that however well intentioned NATO's intervention may have been, the result will be our long term involvement in a conflict with no discernable solution.
Balkan Report, Twice-weekly review from Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.
"Kosovo: Review and Analysis of Policy Objectives, 1998-June 1999," by Julie Kim, Congressional Research Service, July 1999. A good introduction to developments in US policy in Kosovo during 1998 and 1999. It does not cover some of the most controversial aspects of that policy—for example, it makes only a passing reference to Appendix B at Rambouillet and why it, in combination with the additional call for a referendum, helped to trigger the collapse at Rambouillet. But that said, it is a good primer.
"Update on the Situation of Ethnic Minorities in Kosovo, February - May 2000" Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Excerpt: "We knew the hatreds ran deep. But we did not believe that the refugees and the victims UNHCR had helped in exile would soon become the oppressors, employing many of the same disgusting tactics that had once been directed at them." Has the war in Kosovo actually ended? What did we accomplish and when can we leave? Are there broader lessons about using military force to "solve" ethnic and religious conflicts? (117KB .pdf file)
Admiral James O. Ellis's After Action Report on the Kosovo Operation. (ADM Ellis was Commander JTF NOBLE ANVIL during Operation ALLIED FORCE) Generally accepts that NATO technology was successful all levels of the conflict (although subsequent analysis has cast considerable doubt on this conclusion). However, he also raises a number of important issues, including whether a future clever enemy could exploit our aversion to friendly and civilian casualties, and hints at the debate on why Milosovic actually caved. Notes that "Information saturation is additive to the fog of war" and "We were lucky, but luck is not a principle of war for the next commander." (435 KB PowerPoint presentation)
The GAO study on the prospects for lasting peace in the Balkans, "Balkans Security: Current and Projected Factors Affecting Regional Stability." NSIAD-00-125BR. 71 pp. plus 8 appendices (19 pp.) April 24, 2000. UN intervention has suppressed large-scale overt violence, but the "warring parties" have not given up the goals that started the conflict in the first place. The outlook: Business as usual in the Balkans.
Comment 255: "German Antiguerilla Operations in the Balkans (1941 - 1944)" Very complete and detailed report that explains why nothing happening there now should surprise us. From the Army's Center for Military History.
About the Comments (Full text of the references are available on Infowar)
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Memo from Ms XX -- Is "Shit Hitting the Fan" in Kosovo? February 1, 2001
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Where are the Dead Bodies in Kosovo? (V), August 18, 2000
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Kosovo SITREP IV, June 6, 2000
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Kosovo SITREP III, May 23, 2000
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KOSOVO SITREP (II) May 19, 2000
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Kosovo SITREP – A Rough Week for Battalion XX, May 18, 2000
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The Kosovo Question: Out of Altitude, Airspeed, and Ideas, April 11, 2000
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Balkan Primer (XI) - Why the Conflict in Southern Serbia is Important , Tue, 28 Mar 2000
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Kosovo Sitrep - Why There is No Light at the End of the Tunnel, December 30, 1999
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Balkan Primer (X) - Blood Feuds, Kanuns, and American Policy, December 26, 1999
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Where are the Bodies in Kosovo? (IV) – A Compendium of "Revisionist" Literature, November 26, 1999
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Where are the Bodies in Kosovo (III)? – Genocide, Accountability, and the Rule of Law, November 24, 1999
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Balkan Primer (IX) - Slobo, Boris, & Behgjet, September 25, 1999
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Kosovo Sitrep Why Winter is Bad News for the Wilsonian Wonks Preparing the Lessons They Want Us to Learn, September 15, 1999
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KOSOVO: Learning the Lesson We Want to Learn?, September 9, 1999
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BALKAN PRIMER (VIII)—All You Didn't Want to Know About Serbian Politics, August 26, 1999
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The Fallacy of Multi-Culturalism in a Bottom-Up Apartheid Culture, August 25, 1999
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Why did Slobo Cave? (VI) ... What If He Didn't?, August 16, 1999
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Good Guys vs. Bad Guys & or & Finding a Starting Point for Moral Crusading in the Balkans, August 10, 1999
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Why Did Slobo Cave (V)? Did the Russians Pull NATO's Fat Out of the Fire & or & the Question of Grand Strategy? August 6, 1999
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Email from Bill in Kosovo, August 2, 1999
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Why did Slobo Cave? (III)—How fake guns and painting the roads fooled NATO: Yugoslav Army and Air Force Left Kosovo Almost Intact. June 29, 1999
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BALKAN PRIMER (VII)—The Perils of Decentralization in the Balkans Hornet's Nest, June 16, 1999
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NATO's Time Squeeze, May 31, 1999
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The Serbo-NATO War—Is the Glass Half Full or Half Empty? May 12, 1999
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Should NATO Launch a Ground Offensive ... or ... How Tough do the Serbs Have To Be? May 10, 1999
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Driving Bill and Madeline Bananas, April 28, 1999
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Balkan Primer (VI)—Kosovo: Looking Backward into Looking Glass World All its Own, April 22, 1999
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Balkan Primer (V) - Redrawing the Cells in a Hornets Nest ... or ... the Case for a Declaration on War, April 21, 1999
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Options for Kosovo (IV) — More on the Case Against Partition, April 20, 1999
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Options for Kosovo (III) — A Case Against Partition and the Question of a Religious War for a Greater Albania, April 20, 1999
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Options for Kosovo (II) — A Case for Partition, April 19, 1999
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Balkan Primer (IV) - The KLA and the Tangled Web We Weave, April 18, 1999
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Mistrust, Careerism, and the Loss of the Warrior Ethos … or Why One Lieutenant is Leaving the Navy, April 17, 1999
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Options for Kosovo (I) — A Case for Mediation, April 17, 1999
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Balkan Primer III — Kosovo Fallout: Ethnic Tensions Rising in Vojvodina, April 14, 1999
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Comparative Air Power Inputs — Kosovo vs. Iraq (1991), April 13, 1999
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German Antiguerrilla Operations in the Balkans (1941-1944) April 6, 1999
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Balkan Primer (II) - 1987 Yugoslavia Sitrep, April 6, 1999
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BALKAN PRIMER (I) April 5, 1999
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A Balkan Sun Tzu vs. the NATO Clausewitz: A Tentative Interpretation of the Serbo - NATO War, April 4, 1999
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INTERVENTION IN KOSOVO: Can Airpower Pull America's Fat out of the Fire, April 1, 1999
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