[Significantly revised at 6 pm EDST, on March 12th]

Fabius Maximus, in stark contrast to his nickname “Cunctator” (Delayer), takes the initiative:

When non-T conflicts become struggles for control of large geographic areas (not neighborhoods) AND involve substantial use of force, we call them 4GW’s. In the words of Martin van Creveld (private communication) 4GW is a tactic (or body of tactics) used in non-T conflicts. So is crime. So are private acts of violence by super-empowered individuals (see BNW [Brave New War] and Robb’s other writings for more on this). Although these three things can blur together, they are conceptually distinct concepts. Confusing them by calling them “war” can have bad consequences. This is one of the key contributions of Richards in IWCKI [If We Can Keep It].

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A new generation?

When Bill Lind, Keith Nightengale, John Schmitt, Joseph Sutton, and GI Wilson published the paper that introduced the term “fourth generation warfare,” they were speculating:

Is it not about time for a fourth generation to appear? If so, what might it look like?

They posed two broad alternatives, a technology-driven fourth generation (as was the second) or an ideas-driven (as was the third). While ostensibly neutral between the two, it is clear from the word count that they favored the second option and that something like “terrorism” would play a large role (although they admit that up until then - 1989 - it had been “largely ineffective.”)

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by Dag von Lubitz, Ph.D., M.D. and Chairman of the Board of MedSmart

• Original post by Fabius Maximus
• Reply by Ed Beakley of Project White Horse

To: Fabius Maximus

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We are experiencing a change in the fundamental structure of the global economic regime.

If you’re starting to become concerned about what’s going on in the financial world, check out Fabius Maximus’s frame of reference.

Fabius Maximus stakes out an island of sanity within this ocean of fantasy. Unless you subscribe to the abiogenic (non-fossil) theory of petroleum generation, oil production in the not-too-distant future will “peak” and thereafter begin to decline. Will this trigger a global economic catastrophe and increase the likelihood of large-scale conflict?

It sure could, but it doesn’t have to.