A World Without Russia? — An Inquiry into the Implications
of a Long Term Secular Decline

June 18, 1999

Comment: #287

Discussion Thread: Comment #s - the following comments deal with the implications of decline and the breakdown of law and order in Russia: #s 216, 218, 219, 220, 224, 226, 229, & 230


Thomas E. Graham, Jr. (Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace), "A World Without Russia?" Jamestown Foundation Conference, Washington, DC June 9, 1999 [published in Johnson's Russia List #3336, 11 June 1999]

The referenced essay by Thomas Graham discusses the long term consequences of a weak Russia. He argues that we could be witnessing a geo-political and geo-economic shift of historic dimensions. If he is correct, Russia may become a less important influence in world affairs. Even worse, Russia could become the object of competition among more advanced powers—a subject laden with ominous implications, given the problem of controlling nuclear weapons and fissile materials. Such a shift would have far-reaching consequences for the regions bordering on Russia and for the United States. His essay examines this possibility.

Chuck Spinney

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