• Additional Force Cutbacks -- if the cost of operating the oldest airplanes becomes prohibitive

    • Cost Overruns or Budget Cutbacks - Could replacement rates further & magnify the rate of age growth, thereby increasing the pressure to cut back force size


  • More Readiness Reductions:

    • Reduce Training Rates to contain age-driven growth of operating costs & effects of assigning a smaller number of older aircraft to combat units and bases

    • Declining Retention - skilled maintenance personnel leave because of higher workloads and morale-busting workarounds that are needed to support aging, depot-intensive, hi-tech equipment

    • Increasing Morale Problems & Decreased Training Opportunities - if smaller forces make it necessary to increase the proportion of deployed units in support of foreign policy commitments

    • Planners or Politicians Might Rob Readiness - bail out the collapsing modernization program


  • Change the Strategy to Conform to Consequences of Cost Growth in Procurement:

    • Cave In to the Pork-Barreling Pressures of the Defense Industry - adjust the National Strategy to match the shrinking forces made inevitable by out-of-control costs in the procurement program


  • Rationalize Status Quo With Half-Baked Theories of Technological Revolutions:

    • Declare that Further Force Reductions are Not Only necessary, but Desirable - because technological Breakthroughs make it possible to replace manned weapons with a variety of un-manned, higher-cost, remote-controlled, surveillance and reconnaissance sensors, computerized command and control systems, and precision-guided weapons - all wired together into an all-seeing, all-knowing war machine

Raises Question: How Do Can We Break Out of this Death Spiral and Evolve a Viable Plan for Coping with a Real World and Uncertain Resource Constraints?


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