What if bin Laden were smart, like Dr. No or Ernest Blofeld?

or

28 Articles: a guide to a successful insurgency against America.

First in a series describing a potential threat to America
 

By Fabius Maximus

May 7,  2007

Summary

1. Al Qaeda has not yet defeated us, to some extent because they are dumb as rocks.

2. That is good, because so are we.

3. Unfortunately, #1 could change at any time.

Background Information

For those of you who are not James Bond fans, Dr. No and Ernest Blofeld are evil master-minds. Dr. No operated a secret base under an island in the Caribbean. Ernst Stavro Blofeld was the founder and chief executive of SPECTRE, the Special Executive for Counter-intelligence, Terrorism, Revenge and Extortion – a secret global evil conspiracy.

What should be one of our greatest fears …

What if bin Laden and the insurgent leaders in Iraq were as smart as these classic villains? What would they do next? They would consult the literature about modern warfare, the works of Martin van Creveld and others. Perhaps from these they could learn how to defeat America.

They would seek a Grand Strategy, what the late American strategist Col. John Boyd (USAF) said should focus one’s actions – political, economic, and military – so as to:

Then they would distil this into a handbook, perhaps with 28 steps or articles. It might look something like this…

Article #1: know your enemy.

This sets a high standard for “them” to be the world expert about us.” In WWII the leaders of neither the Japanese Empire nor the Third Reich came close to this mark, and so suffered catastrophic defeat. Al Qaeda has an advantage both of them lacked: thousands of people from the Middle East have studied and worked in America during the past fifty years. The combination of deep familiarity plus some cognitive and emotional distance might give them perspectives on America that Americans’ lack.

Fortunately al Qaeda has proven unable to conduct effected Information Operations and Public Diplomacy (IO and PD in the jargon of the counterinsurgency consiglieri). Perhaps even less effectively than our efforts in Iraq.

If al Qaeda can tap this knowledge, how might they apply it?  Bin Laden might start with Boyd's second point: Weaken “our” opponents’ resolve and internal cohesion.

He might easily wage info-warfare against us, seeking to fracture us, weaken our will to fight, and destroy our reputation in the eyes of our allies. It’s a small world today, tightly linked by the many news media. For example, al Qaeda could publicize and even exaggerate the damage done to Iraq’s infrastructure, the resulting suffering of its people, and – most of all – the direct and indirect deaths of Iraq’s people since the invasion. As Juan Cole reports on his blog Informed Comment, the Middle Eastern media are filled with such stories – but al Qaeda has not attempted to convey these stories to receptive elements of American society.

Bin Laden might strike at the confidence of the American people in its military institutions and at the cohesion of our Armed Forces. Could he have written anything more damaging than these articles?

Or this…

Consider the publication of these articles – and the ones to follow  – as a tactical strike at the cohesion of our forces (alienating a key component group), at their reputation in the eyes of America’s citizens. In this sense their truth or falsity is irrelevant. All that matters are the consequences. This could open another front in the war – or perhaps more accurately – another domestic front in the war.

If bin Laden had unleashed these articles, he would be a happy man today. If bin Laden was smart enough to exploit the internal divisions in our society, America would be in serious trouble. Fortunately for us, he is not that smart. Unfortunately, we are dumb enough so that he need not be so smart.

Our own worst enemy

There are a thousand ways bin Laden could attack our ability to wage war in Iraq. The Vietnam War was lost at home as well as on the battlefield, as our enemies attacked our heart as well as our fists. Inflicting such damage appears to be beyond al Qaeda’s capabilities, but our civilian and military leaders have proved able to do so without their help.

The above examples illustrate simple ways that al Qaeda could attack us. The next article describes even more effective and insidious techniques.

Article 2: Diagnose the problem

Afterward

Are the things reported here good or bad? Please consult a priest or philosopher for answers to such questions. This author only discusses what was, what is, and what might be.

Please send your comments and corrections on this article to    

Appendices

Who was Fabius Maximus?

Qualifications of the Author?

Read the past articles by Fabius Maximus. A work of intellectual analysis stands on its own logic, supported by the author’s track record.

Return to DNI