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Introduction
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Statements by the USD(A) and Ch. JCS
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The Defense Death Spiral
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Ready for What?
- Background: The Evolution of War
- Are There Evolutionary Pathways That Might Carry Forward Into the Future?
- End of the Cold War: Strategic Changes
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Implications for Future Capabilities
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How is the Pentagon Adapting to the End of the Cold War?
- What Near-term Threat Should We Prepare For?
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Readiness Critique
- What Threat Should Guide Modernization for the Long Term?
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Modernization Critique
- Pattern of Programmatic Adaptation
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Changes in DoD Budget (Constant Dollars)
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Comparative Expenditures: Historical and Vs. Any Conceivable Threat
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DoD Budget in Constant Dollars
- End of Cold War vs. End of Vietnam: Pattern of Change
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Asymmetries Help Discern the Pathway to the Train Wreck
- Why DoD has Readiness Problems, Even Though Per Unit O&S Spending Remains High
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Defense Death Spiral: Modernization Program
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USAF TACAIR Procurement & Budgets (1953 - 2017)
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USAF TACAIR Inventory and Average Age (1953 - 2017)
- A Perfectly Excecuted Modernization Program WILL NOT Modernize the Force! (AF Aircraft)
- A Perfectly Excecuted Modernization Program WILL NOT Modernize the Force! (Army & Navy Equipment)
- Operating Costs and the Rising Cost of Low Readiness Title Chart
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Defense Death Spiral: The Rising Cost of Low Readiness
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Ingredients of Operational Excellence: People - Ideas - Hardware
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E-mail From the Troops
- America's Growing Officer Surplus
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Officer Statistics (1945 vs. 1997)
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Officer Bloat: Summary & Effects
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AF Operations vs. Spending: The Rising Cost of Low Readiness (1950 - 2003)
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Mutually Reinforcing Effects: Aging Equipment, Increasing Complexity, Infrastructure Inefficiencies
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Direct Effect of Aging on Large Jet Transports
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Increasing Complexity Interacts with Average Age to Drive Up Costs
- Increasing Complexity Increases Costs (Notwithstanding Promises of Lower Operating Costs)
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The Rising Cost of Low Readiness: USAF Bombers
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The Rising Cost of Low Readiness: Army
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The Rising Cost of Low Readiness: Navy Ships
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The Rising Cost of Low Readiness: USMC Helos
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Age & Complexity Summary
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Displacement of Maintenance in Time and Space
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Observations on the Consequences of Displacement
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Indirect Consequences of Complexity-Induced Cost Growth
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Base Load Factors
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Defense Death Spiral: Accounting Shambles
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DoD's Budget Shambles
- Budget Shamble - Unauditable Books
- DoD's Budget Shambles: Plans - Reality Mismatch
- Example the Plans/Reality Mismatch and the Nature of Cost Overruns: Front Loading of the F-18A
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Defense Death Spiral: Front Loading
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Front Loading the F-18E
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What Would Happen if the F-22 / JSF had an Overrun Equal to Just 1/2 that of the F-18A?
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End Game: Macro-Dynamics of the Inevitable Meltdown
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Possible Evolutionary Pathways Into the Future
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Recommendations: Aim of Reform
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Restoring Coherence and Integrity to Decision Making
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Recommendations: Policy Stand Down For a Reality Check
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Strategic Planning: An Idealized View
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How Can We Convert this Ideal into Reality?
- Stand Down for a Reality Check (I): Put DoD on "Autopilot" for a Year
- Stand Down for a Reality Check (II): Planning Options
- Stand Down for a Reality Check (III: Produce a More Relevant Adaptation to the Uncertainties of the Emerging World.
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Preventing the Collapse of Air Force Tactical Fighter Aviation: Illustrative Planning Options
- USAF TACAIR Inventory and Average Age Goals
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USAF TACAIR: Preventing Collapse
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Illustrative Acquisition Strategies
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Did Excessive Budget Reductions Degrade Readiness?
- Lincoln: The Dogmas of the Quiet Past
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