Franklin C. Spinney

Table of Contents

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  1. Introduction
  2. Statements by the USD(A) and Ch. JCS 
  3. The Defense Death Spiral
  4. Ready for What?
  5. Background: The Evolution of War
  6. Are There Evolutionary Pathways That Might Carry Forward Into the Future?
  7. End of the Cold War: Strategic Changes
  8. Implications for Future Capabilities
  9. How is the Pentagon Adapting to the End of the Cold War?
  10. What Near-term Threat Should We Prepare For?
  11. Readiness Critique
  12. What Threat Should Guide Modernization for the Long Term?
  13. Modernization Critique
  14. Pattern of Programmatic Adaptation
  15. Changes in DoD Budget (Constant Dollars)
  16. Comparative Expenditures: Historical and Vs. Any Conceivable Threat
  17. DoD Budget in Constant Dollars
  18. End of Cold War vs. End of Vietnam: Pattern of Change
  19. Asymmetries Help Discern the Pathway to the Train Wreck
  20. Why DoD has Readiness Problems, Even Though Per Unit O&S Spending Remains High
  21. Defense Death Spiral: Modernization Program
  22. USAF TACAIR Procurement & Budgets (1953 - 2017)
  23. USAF TACAIR Inventory and Average Age (1953 - 2017)
  24. A Perfectly Excecuted Modernization Program WILL NOT Modernize the Force! (AF Aircraft)
  25. A Perfectly Excecuted Modernization Program WILL NOT Modernize the Force! (Army & Navy Equipment)
  26. Operating Costs and the Rising Cost of Low Readiness Title Chart
  27. Defense Death Spiral: The Rising Cost of Low Readiness
  28. Ingredients of Operational Excellence: People - Ideas - Hardware
  29. E-mail From the Troops
  30. America's Growing Officer Surplus
  31. Officer Statistics (1945 vs. 1997)
  32. Officer Bloat: Summary & Effects
  33. AF Operations vs. Spending: The Rising Cost of Low Readiness (1950 - 2003)
  34. Mutually Reinforcing Effects: Aging Equipment, Increasing Complexity, Infrastructure Inefficiencies
  35. Direct Effect of Aging on Large Jet Transports
  36. Increasing Complexity Interacts with Average Age to Drive Up Costs
  37. Increasing Complexity Increases Costs (Notwithstanding Promises of Lower Operating Costs) 
  38. The Rising Cost of Low Readiness: USAF Bombers
  39. The Rising Cost of Low Readiness: Army
  40. The Rising Cost of Low Readiness: Navy Ships
  41. The Rising Cost of Low Readiness: USMC Helos
  42. Age & Complexity Summary
  43. Displacement of Maintenance in Time and Space
  44. Observations on the Consequences of Displacement
  45. Indirect Consequences of Complexity-Induced Cost Growth
  46. Base Load Factors
  47. Defense Death Spiral: Accounting Shambles
  48. DoD's Budget Shambles
  49. Budget Shamble - Unauditable Books
  50. DoD's Budget Shambles: Plans - Reality Mismatch
  51. Example the Plans/Reality Mismatch and the Nature of Cost Overruns: Front Loading of the F-18A
  52. Defense Death Spiral: Front Loading
  53. Front Loading the F-18E
  54. What Would Happen if the F-22 / JSF had an Overrun Equal to Just 1/2 that of the F-18A?
  55. End Game:  Macro-Dynamics of the Inevitable Meltdown
  56. Possible Evolutionary Pathways Into the Future
  57. Recommendations: Aim of Reform
  58. Restoring Coherence and Integrity to Decision Making
  59. Recommendations: Policy Stand Down For a Reality Check
  60. Strategic Planning: An Idealized View
  61. How Can We Convert this Ideal into Reality?
  62. Stand Down for a Reality Check (I): Put DoD on "Autopilot" for a Year
  63. Stand Down for a Reality Check (II): Planning Options
  64. Stand Down for a Reality Check (III: Produce a More Relevant Adaptation to the Uncertainties of the Emerging World.
  65. Preventing the Collapse of Air Force Tactical Fighter Aviation: Illustrative Planning Options
  66. USAF TACAIR Inventory and Average Age Goals
  67. USAF TACAIR: Preventing Collapse
  68. Illustrative Acquisition Strategies
  69. Did Excessive Budget Reductions Degrade Readiness?
  70. Lincoln: The Dogmas of the Quiet Past

Introduction

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