The Commentaries of Fabius Maximus


[articles after November 1st are archived on Fabius's new blog site.]

Peak Oil

Part I - When will global oil production peak? Here is the answer! November 1, 2007

The Long War

Part X - One step beyond Lind: what is America’s geopolitical strategy? October 28, 2007

Part IX - 4GW at work in a community near you, October 19, 2007

Part VIII - How to accurately forecast trends of the Iraq War, October 15, 2007

Part VII - Kilcullen explains all you need to know about the Iraq War, October 6, 2007

Part VI - The bad news is that Lind’s good news is wrong, October 4, 2007

Part V - The Iraq War as a warning for America, October 1, 2007

Part IV - Beyond Insurgency: An End to Our War in Iraq, September 27, 2007 

Part III - Stories or statistics?  Read and compare to find the truth! September 5, 2007

Part II - News from the Front: America’s military has mastered 4GW! September 2, 2007

Part I – America takes another step towards the “Long War,” July 24, 2007

The pointlessness of "Challenging the Generals,"  August 27, 2007

A Handbook for Insurgents

Part III – The Core Competence of America’s Military Leaders, May 22, 2007

Part II – Addendum to Part I, May 14, 2007

Part I – What if bin Laden were smart, like Dr. No or Ernest Blofeld?
or 28 Articles: a guide to a successful insurgency against America,
May 7, 2007

Review of The Changing Face of War, by Martin van Creveld, April 30, 2007

Iraq Series - 2006-2007

Part V – The Iraq insurgency has ended, which opens a path to peace, March 13, 2007

Part IV – Why We Lose, January 4, 2007

Part III – More Paths to Failure in Iraq, December 19, 2006

Part II – What Should We Do in Iraq? December 9, 2006

Part I – Situation Report on the Expedition to Iraq, November 12, 2006

Grand Strategy

Part IV – How America Can Survive and Even Prosper in the 21st Century, April 30, 2007

Part III America's Most Dangerous Enemy

Interlude Top Secret US Government Documents About Iraq

Part II The Fate of Israel

Part I The Myth of Grand Strategy


Forecast: the Death of the American Constitution, February 22, 2007

More Forecasts – Part Two

More Forecasts Part One

Forecasts for the American Expedition to Iraq – the Sequel

Forecasts for the American Expedition to Iraq

Lessons Learned from the American Expedition to Iraq

Women Warriors

The Rioting in France and the Decline of the State

The Plame Affair and the Decline of The State

Militia: the dominant defensive force in 21st Century 4GW?

Thoughts on William Lind’s Fourth Generation War field manual (FMFM 1-A)

Iraq Series - 2003

Scorecard #4: War in Iraq: New developments & Implications, November 22

Scorecard #3: A look at the Coalition’s Progress in Iraq, November 9

Scorecard #2: an Iraq Update, October 31

Scorecard #1: How well are we doing in Iraq? September 22